BUENOS AIRES, June 7, 2025 (AP) — A new Poliarquia survey published Saturday shows President Javier Milei's La Libertad Avanza coalition could gain 14 seats in October's midterm elections.
The poll found Milei's coalition would win 42% of votes in Chamber of Deputies races, up from 31% in 2023. The opposition Union for the Homeland would fall to 28% from 37%.
The projection suggests Milei could increase Chamber representation from 38 to 52 seats — still short of a majority but enough to form blocking alliances. The Senate projection shows Milei gaining just 2 seats, leaving him with 9 of 72.
Milei's personal approval stands at 47%, up from 43% in April. Among voters aged 18 to 29, approval runs at 52%. Among voters over 65, who rely most heavily on pensions that Milei has frozen in real terms, approval drops to 31%.
The poll asked voters whether they supported specific reforms, finding majority approval for the elimination of currency controls (61%) and the reduction of government ministries (58%). Pension reform remained unpopular at 38% approval.
Campaigning has already begun, with Milei holding rallies in Cordoba, Rosario, and Mendoza over the past two weeks.
The opposition Union for the Homeland remains fragmented. Former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, still the coalition's most influential figure, faces multiple corruption trials and has largely retreated from public campaigning.
Vice President Victoria Villarruel, who represents the coalition's nationalist wing, has publicly criticized Milei's economic team for being "too focused on financial markets and not focused enough on industrial workers." The split has not yet produced an open break, but analysts say Villarruel is positioning herself as an alternative leader if Milei's popularity fades.
The campaign dynamics reflect Argentina's deepening political realignment. Milei has focused his messaging on the inflation reduction, emphasizing that his policies have stabilized the currency after years of chronic devaluation. The opposition has struggled to counter this narrative, instead focusing on the social costs of austerity, including rising poverty rates and reduced public spending on health and education.
Provincial governors hold significant influence over the outcome, as Argentina's electoral system allocates Chamber seats based on provincial population. Milei's coalition has made inroads in traditional Peronist strongholds like Buenos Aires Province, where Governor Axel Kicillof faces a competitive reelection campaign.
The polling data suggests Milei's message resonates most strongly with voters who experienced the hyperinflation of 2023 firsthand. Focus groups conducted by Poliarquia found that voters under 35 consistently cite "economic stability" as their primary concern, while older voters prioritize "protection of social programs."
International observers are monitoring the election closely. The Organization of American States has announced it will deploy monitoring teams to Argentina for the October vote, citing concerns about polarized political rhetoric and the potential for post-election disputes over results.
