Argentina's consumer prices rose 2.4% in November from October, the national statistics agency INDEC reported on December 11. It was another step down in monthly inflation and the lowest reading in about four years, according to the Buenos Aires Herald. For President Javier Milei, who had made disinflation the centrepiece of his economic programme, the release offered a measurable achievement. For families paying rent, utilities and groceries, it did not mean prices had fallen.
The slowdown and the price level
INDEC reported that prices had risen 112% in the first eleven months of 2024 and 166% compared with November 2023, according to the Herald's account of the release. These figures describe different periods: 2.4% is a change from October to November, while 166% compares two Novembers a year apart. Treating one as a substitute for the other would obscure both the speed of improvement and the accumulated cost. October's monthly rise had been 2.7%, itself the first reading below 3% since November 2021, the Herald reported.
The composition of the November basket mattered. Education prices increased 5.1% from October, housing and utilities 4.5%, and food and non-alcoholic beverages 4%, according to the report. All rose faster than the headline monthly index. Higher regulated bills and rents can make an improving average feel distant to a household with a large share of income committed to essentials. Inflation does not affect every consumer identically: students, tenants and poorer families may have spending baskets different from the national measure.
Milei's first months had brought an exceptional surge in prices following the December 2023 devaluation; the monthly increase that December was 25.5%, according to the Herald. The subsequent decline in the monthly rate was therefore substantial. His administration credited spending restraint and the effort to stop financing deficits by issuing money. Those policies also coincided with recession and a first-half poverty peak. A slower rate of price increases was necessary to protect wages and savings, but it was not enough on its own to recover the purchasing power already lost during the shock.
What would confirm a durable change
Economy officials described the new reading as evidence that stabilisation was working, the Herald reported. In his first-anniversary address the previous day, Milei promised to end inflation for good and outlined plans to loosen the currency restrictions known as the cepo in 2025. Investors would watch whether an easing of those controls could be managed without reigniting peso pressure. Households would watch whether income growth finally outpaced inflation in the goods and services they actually bought.
One month's figure cannot settle either question. The November release showed price momentum cooling across much of the economy, yet the year-on-year comparison was still extremely high. The distinction between disinflation and deflation is fundamental here: at 2.4%, the overall cost of the measured basket continued to rise in November, just more slowly than in earlier months. Reducing inflation consistently through the next budget, tariff and wage-setting cycles would be a sterner test than falling from a crisis peak.
As December began, the president could point to the new data as support for his strategy while opponents could point to the enduring squeeze on essentials. The next INDEC releases would show whether prices continued to decelerate; separate figures on wages, jobs and poverty would show when, and for whom, that statistical improvement translated into relief.
